Nothing To See Here

• RSI(14) sits at 56.17, above the neutral 50 line but well below the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions.
• The S&P 500 is trading around 7736.62, still inside the ascending trend channel it has followed since roughly April 2026, and above its 20-day (7672.14), 50-day (7635.95), and 200-day (7205.17) moving averages.
• The MACD/PPO indicator, after drifting flat to slightly negative over the past couple of months, is turning back up, a sign momentum may be reaccelerating rather than rolling over.
• None of these signals in isolation should drive a decision. Together, they describe a market in a constructive, if unremarkable, holding pattern.
• Calm, orderly markets are often the ones where a long-term plan has the best chance to compound as intended.

Momentum without excess (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures the speed and magnitude of recent price moves on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings above 70 often indicate a market has gotten ahead of itself. Readings below 30 can suggest oversold conditions. Right now, RSI(14) reads 56.17. That is comfortably above the 50 midline, which tells us buyers still have the edge, but it is nowhere near the overbought zone.

Looking back over the past several months, RSI has mostly stayed in a 50 to 70 range. That is a fairly disciplined pattern. It suggests the market has been climbing on genuine, sustained interest rather than the kind of speculative spike that tends to end badly. In our experience, this is the kind of indicator we want to see stay boring for a while.

Still inside the channel

Since roughly April 2026, the S&P 500 has traded within an ascending channel, a series of parallel rising trendlines that mark the rough boundaries of the uptrend. As of this writing, the index sits near 7736.62, up 32.49 points (+0.42%) on the day, and it remains inside that channel rather than breaking above or below it.

Just as telling is where price sits relative to its moving averages. The index is above its 20-day average (7672.14), its 50-day average (7635.95), and its 200-day average (7205.17). When shorter-term averages sit above longer-term ones and price holds above all three, that is generally read as a constructive, trend-confirming setup. Keep in mind the 200-day average is too much of a lagging indicator to act on by itself, but as a backdrop it reinforces that the longer-term trend remains intact.

The MACD/PPO turning back up

The chart's lower panel shows the Percentage Price Oscillator, PPO(12,26,9), a MACD-style momentum tool. Over the past couple of months it had drifted slightly negative and flat, an early indicator that upward momentum was cooling. More recently, the histogram has started ticking higher again, suggesting momentum may be reaccelerating rather than breaking down.

We want to be careful not to overreact to a single indicator turning in isolation. But paired with RSI holding above 50 and price still inside its rising channel, the PPO's early upturn is a modest, constructive signal worth watching.

Despite the media, who often feel their job is to scare the pants off of investors, sometimes the most useful thing we can report is that nothing dramatic is happening. Corrections, breakdowns, and volatility spikes are a normal part of investing, but so are long, unremarkable stretches where the market simply grinds higher inside an established trend.

A disciplined financial plan is not built to react to every headline. It is built to withstand them. When the underlying technical picture is calm, that is the environment where a properly structured plan, one that connects your investment strategy with your tax, retirement, and estate planning, gets to do its work without interruption. Quiet markets rarely make the news. They are, however, exactly the conditions long-term investors should hope for.

• Reacting to daily percentage moves (up or down) without checking whether the broader trend has actually changed.
• Treating a single indicator, like RSI or MACD, as a standalone buy or sell signal rather than one piece of a larger picture.
• Assuming "quiet" means "complacent." A calm chart still deserves regular review, not indifference.
• Letting short-term headlines override a plan built for a multi-decade time horizon.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.